Monat: Dezember 2020

Analyst warns bitcoin could still crash below $20,000

Bitcoin has entered uncharted territory after its dramatic breakout above $22,000 on Thursday. And now the flagship cryptocurrency is aimless about the next trend.

Traders have no historical reference to guess short-term support and resistance levels. Nonetheless, many of them have Crowd Millionaire predicted an extended bitcoin rally in the wake of supportive fundamental indicators.

These factors include ever-increasing institutional capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market and euphoria among retail investors led by a bearish outlook for the US dollar in 2021.

Amid the bullish rush, however, there are also some warnings of possible bearish corrections.

The RSI factor

Bitcoin’s price rally above $20,000 had made it an overbought asset, according to some technical indicators (the Relative Strength Indicator). This requires some degree of sentiment neutralisation, which could only come if traders with short-term risk appetite start to take their profits.

A pseudonymous analyst writes something similar in a recent note. According to him, BTC/USD could extend its uptrend to $23,000-24,000. But then the pair could correct by about 20 percent – a move that could send BTC crashing to as low as $19,000. The analyst:

„BTCUSD is at its highest with a weekly RSI reading of 87-90. The price corresponding to the weekly RSI of 88.5 is $23k. An RSI of 53 provides significant support. The price equivalent is $13.6k and rising $500 per week.“

Calls for a downward move are also coming from elsewhere. Independent market analyst Jonny Moe is currently warning in a tweet of a potential bearish reversal pattern forming on Bitcoin’s short-term charts.

The Rising Wedge typically causes an asset to break lower after a prolonged rise.

„Last stand for the bears,“ commented Mr Moe as he tweeted the bearish chart.

Bitcoin’s growth potential

On long-term charts, as well as the daily chart above, Bitcoin is showing signs of reversal after testing the upper trendline of the Ascending Channel area. Traders could look to sell the upside with a short-term target towards the previous support at $19,000, followed by an extended sentiment towards the lower trendline, which is in the $18,700-18,800 area.

But given the macroeconomic setup, led by the US Federal Reserve’s recent pledge to buy Treasuries at the same pace and keep interest rates near zero, it could mean traders are buying the next bitcoin dip for its long-term bullish outlook.

That would mean the cryptocurrency bouncing back towards the channel’s upper trendline. The resistance line would then be somewhere in the $24,500-25,000 range.

MicroStrategy Announces Company’s Third Largest Bitcoin Investment

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor announced last week that the company had reinvested in Bitcoin. The $ 50 million purchase marks the third largest Bitcoin investment in the company’s history.

On December 4, Michael Saylor posted a tweet stating that publicly traded software company MicroStrategy had acquired an additional 2,574 Bitcoin

The Bitcoin rate amounted at that time to about 19,427 US dollars. Thus, the company is now in total ownership of approximately 40,824 Bitcoin.

The investment is unlikely to have surprised few. The company has already announced that it will reallocate its cash reserves to 1k Daily Profit. The investments are „dependent on market conditions and business requirements“. The company announced Bitcoin investments worth millions in August and September 2020. At the time, it was a total of 38,240 BTC, valued at around $ 425 million. In 2013, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor positioned himself as a clear opponent of Bitcoin and declared that cryptocurrency had no future for him:

Bitcoin’s days are numbered. It only seems like a matter of time before it suffers the same fate as online gambling

The BTC rate has risen sharply since then. While the price was $ 13,745 at the time of the first two investments, it is now over $ 19,000. The average cost of MicroStrategy is $ 11,635. Saylor stressed that the current investment is part of MicroStrategy’s Treasury Reserve policy . The aim is to „avoid inflation-prone cash for Bitcoin“.

In July 2020, the company’s CEO first expressed his interest in Bitcoin. Since then, MicroStrategy’s shares are up 170 percent.

Bitcoin genoptager $ 16.000, men denne fremtrædende markedspund siger, at den er i bobleområdet

Bitcoin-prisen har været på et vildt løb siden 7. oktober efter at have sprunget et lavt niveau på $ 10.546. Den 21. oktober brød det digitale aktiv sin sammenhæng med aktiemarkedet og store indekser som S&P 500 og knækkede $ 12.000 og $ 13.000 samme dag.

Den nuværende pris på BTC er $ 16.076 efter en let afvisning fra dets toårige højde på $ 16.480. Der er bestemt meget FOMO på kryptokurrencymarkedet lige nu, da Crypto Trader fortsætter med at dominere andre mønter og nåede en samlet markedsdominans på 64,6%, det højeste punkt siden juni 2020.

Mange investorer ser ud til at være bekymrede for Bitcoins pris, da den nærmer sig sin heltidshøjde på $ 20.000 igen. Nogle indikatorer tyder på, at flagskibskryptovalutaen kan være på randen til en større korrektion efter en prisvækst på 57% de sidste to måneder.

Vil FOMO forhindre Bitcoin i at se en tilbageførsel?

Timothy Peterson, en veteranhandler og Global Macro Manager hos Cane Island Alternative Advisors, mener, at Bitcoin er en ‚lidt boblende lige nu‘.

I sit tweet nævner Peterson, at Bitcoin i øjeblikket er i en ‚risikozone‘, der ser på Sentiment-diagrammet. Historikken har vist, at når BTC først krydser ind i denne zone, er den bundet til en gennemsnitlig 20% tilbageførsel.

I dette særlige scenario ville Bitcoin falde mod $ 13.000 for at teste dette niveau igen, hvis denne forudsigelse er nøjagtig.

På kort sigt er den vigtigste indikator 12-EMA på det daglige diagram, der har været som supportniveau siden 8. oktober

En opdeling fra denne EMA ville være betydelig og begyndelsen på en potentiel tilbageførsel. 26-EMA ville også være et stærkt supportniveau i så fald.

Tabet af begge EMA’er og bekræftelse af en daglig nedadgående tendens kan potentielt føre Bitcoins pris mod $ 13.000. Det er dog også værd at bemærke, at det digitale aktiv står over for meget lidt modstand mod opadrettede.